Where is Collecting Going in 2025?
What's in Store for a Year Where Uncertainty is the Only Constant?
The world is facing an uncertain future. Yet, 2025 begins from a position of geopolitical instability, and yet despite the global geopolitical hijinks, stock markets and crypto are booming again. So why aren’t watches?
I’ve mostly spent the last month not writing about watches, as you might have noticed. Instead, I helped a few collectors find their first watch and that was a rewarding journey, both for the neophyte collectors and for me - I got a chance to dive back into watches for the first time and live vicariously through their interest in watches and purchase decisions. You could say I got to see the industry with fresh eyes and find joy in the hunt for a watch. If you know anyone looking to get their first watch or add to their collection, please send them over to my services page.
But I digress. Watches are still not looking super hot after a market run that would make silicon valley jealous. Watches have been through an unprecedented run of success in the last 4 years, and things feel like they are settling down. In fact, I needed to create some space for myself to think about this and what I was seeing and feeling at the auctions at the end of 2024. Those auctions gave me a lot to think about - there were a number of things that interested me - not only the hype around F.P. Journe, but the nature of some of the independent watches that were for sale at auction - they were simpler and more elegant. Even before seeing these watches at auction, I was already feeling collectors moving towards vintage watches, finding value where pricing wasn’t devoid of reality, and a move towards dress watches. I wasn’t sure if this was attributable to a return to office mandate, but more than anything, I think this trend is about simplicity and elegance.
Taking the time away from the industry, from writing about it, or working with brands and retailers, and working with some new collectors helped to give me some perspective about what I think is coming in 2025. From speaking with new collectors, to meeting with industry friends and seasoned collectors, I have gotten to thinking about what might change in 2025, and how we as enthusiasts, industry insiders, and those who work in the watch industry might manage these changes.
In order to understand how I ended up with these conclusions, I think it’s helpful to take a look at what I was thinking about for 2024. In my end-of-year update for 2023, I wrote about navigating watch collecting in 2024. Specifically, I outlined several emerging trends in collecting:
Curated Collections: Collectors are embracing a more focused approach to their collecting, opting for fewer watches with deeper personal significance.
An Emphasis on Significance:Whether that means iconic design references, historical provenance, or watches made by watchmakers with whom they have a personal connection, collectors will focus on watches that carry a unique and noteworthy story.
Indie Collecting Is Now: There is a hunger for true artisanal independent watchmaking that represents the spirit of building a watch from scratch, using few suppliers and original designs.
Enduring Hype: A certain amount of hype is good for the industry - it pushes brands, it keeps mechanical watchmaking relevant, it creates new ideas and generates new complications, and it gets people excited about the industry.
Direct Collector Relationships with Brands: With the rise of social media and the rise of indies, social media enabled collectors to establish direct connections with brands, often interacting with the watchmakers themselves.
A Collection That Makes Sense for You: Buying for personal satisfaction, connection to brands, and to satisfy personal tastes will define 2024 as collectors commit only to watches they genuinely love.
By and large, I stand by this list. We’ve seen most of it materialize. However, collectors still struggle with building collections that feel cohesive amidst industry marketing that constantly pushes the “latest and greatest.” I think I will revise my statement on curated collections - while I am focused on curating my own collections and helping others to curate theirs, it feels, like in many other areas of luxury right now, that we are in an era of excess, and era of maximalism. And why not? We survived the pandemic, geopolitically the world is uncertain, with multiple elections looming this year and war on multiple continents, why not enjoy watches and other luxury goods?
So what’s on tap for 2025? I think there is an overarching theme of simplicity for the year ahead. I am thinking about this in a broader context- crypto is up, stock markets are up, but watches are down or flat in most cases. That leads me to think that trends are changing in the watch industry, and some brands who have already planned their production and cannot be as nimble as a smaller brand, or even a large brand, might face significant headwinds in this economic climate. If brands haven’t looked at these trends and looked at what they can change, there might be a looming crisis that sucks them into the void. With these headwinds in mind, let’s dive into what’s changing.
1. Migration to Smaller Watches
Hodinkee and Ben Clymer, specifically, have been on about smaller case sizes since they began writing about watches. It looks like their dream is finally coming true - a migration to smaller watches, and production of smaller case sizes across the board, which is great for nearly everyone, except me.
That said, collectors are embracing watches in the 36-39mm size range, focusing on traditional dress watch sizing. This move is not only tapping into versatility and comfort, I am hoping it ushers with it an era of thinner cases, where movements are integrated rather than modular. This would be the ultimate in both sophistication and elegance, and provide desired innovation. I write more about this a little further down this list in the “Old Man Era of Watches.”
2. The Return of Dress Watches
Ah, the rubber strap sport-watch. A favorite of athletes, the remote work generation, and those for whom a precious metal bracelet is just too heavy. The rubber-strap sports watch dominated the last few years, driven by relaxed dress codes, remote work, and a casual lifestyle. In 2025, however, I’m seeing a resurgence of dressier, strap watches. These watches reflect a return to formality and the recognition that a refined timepiece can stand out in a sea of utilitarian sports models, or offer the understated elegance that many desire in a watch.
3. Vintage Resurgence
The allure of vintage watches is undeniable. They carry stories, patina, and a sense of life lived, which is missing in many sterile, modern designs. Collectors are rediscovering the charm of vintage timepieces, often drawn to their imperfections and history. This is often what’s missing from today’s modern big brand watches - they simply refer to the heritage of these watches as if it is reason enough to buy one. They simply allude to the stories, yet don’t elaborate upon them.
It’s sad - there are amazing stories behind each brand - if their marketing teams would actually tell them. The campaigns that could come out of some of these brands would lead to new iterations of classic watches and, yet the watch industry refuses to wade deeper into these stories. I’m not sure if this is a product of already relying on words like “tradition,” but I think there is a worry that looking to the past will forego innovation and look as though a brand is relying on past success rather than modern design. It doesn’t bother me - many of today’s production watches are rather sterile and feel like they have been designed in a vacuum without a sense of panache, and too much focus on making after sales service easier (that’s another can of worms that we can get into this year), but they lack in substance and a feeling that this watch has a purpose and can be lived in.
Eric Wind addressed the interest in vintage watches in his latest newsletter, and I have seen an uptick in vintage watch interest from clients and fellow collectors. Watches are meant to be worn and meant to be lived in - that in and of itself is something worth remembering.
4. A Return to Retail
While direct-to-consumer (DTC) models are thriving, I think there may be a change afoot in 2025, especially as we consider headwinds for the watch market. Nike is an interesting case study here. In 2017 then CEO John Donahoe decided Nike should focus on direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales channels and curtail many of their wholesale accounts, on the premise that customers would rather shop with Nike directly.
In an article From Modern Retail, one interview sums up the end result:
“According to Tom Nikic, senior vice president of equity research at Wedbush Securities, Nike’s DTC focus may have been slightly misguided. “Having a bigger direct-to-consumer business is a positive,” he said. “I do think that having a closer connection with the consumer is important. But I think where they may have kind of misjudged the marketplace was that the consumer wants choice… [and] will still go to the multi-brand retailers.”1
Many watch brands have been drawn into the cycle of moving away from traditional retail models. They want to achieve those higher profit numbers and cut out the retailer, but in order for this to be successful a brand needs to have a strong trajectory and really needs to have strong control of its assortment and be willing to cull underperforming SKUs.
For many brands, it is not only the additional profit that they desire, but the closeness to their customers. And that desire for additional profit comes with the additional stress of selling, allocating, and traveling to meet customers. Working with retailers means someone can tell your story and sell the brand locally to an existing book of clients. By shuffling these costs to the retailer, the brands can then spend that money, time, and effort cultivating the closeness with the customers through fun and memorable experiences that will likely sell more watches in the long-term.
Retailers play a crucial role in storytelling and creating connections, particularly for complex or avant-garde brands. A blend of exclusive brand boutiques and multi-brand retailers may provide the best of both worlds. It seems to me like the retail space is consolidating around a handful of retailers in each region, often the biggest and most established players. These larger retailers are able to sell their services as storytellers, sales machines, and client books to brands to ensure that their production sells out annually, and in turn this allows the retailer to present a convincing argument as to why brands or independent watchmakers should work with them in a given region.
5. Innovation
For years, innovation in watchmaking has felt like a buzzword. In 2025, brands will need to demonstrate genuine advancements in materials, design, and complications in order to retain collector interest. Take for example the Cubitus - a watch that uses a leftover bracelet and movement and creates a square case into which a round movement fits. It doesn’t smack of innovation or design sense. There will be a genuine appreciation of innovation. Brands that work solely on an “evolution not revolution” time scale may see their sales suffer as we move into 2025.
There is innovation to be found in independent watchmaking, especially with design and materials, but big brands can win on material innovation and pioneering the use of new materials to make their watches.
6. Big Brands vs. Independents
I’m unsure how to forecast this trend, but it feels like the watch world is nearing a decisive moment: a shift toward either major brands or their independent counterparts. While big brands face notable headwinds, my focus on independent watchmaking over the past three years has kept me somewhat detached from the larger players. CEO turnovers, generational shifts, and renewed interest in watches could spark a resurgence for the big brands. The key for them, however, lies in refining their offerings. Streamlining SKUs and narrowing their assortments will be essential for success.
Independents will continue to excel at what they do - innovating and telling their story on a mechanical canvas, but I wonder if we haven’t seen a recent peak in independent watchmaking. The fervor to find the next F.P. Journe took collecting Journe from a small circle of passionate collectors, to a speculative group of collectors who just wanted to get their hands on any available watch chasing ROI. (For those of you on the sidelines, many collectors are hedging on who the next F.P. Journe will be, and what independent brand will be next to hit big at auctions and in the secondary market.) That outlook is dangerous for the industry and for the newly minted independent watchmakers themselves. This is something to watch in 2025. Speculation around independents could risk turning this space into a market driven more by investment than passion—a dangerous precedent.
Does this mean the era of modern independents is over? Far from it, MB&F Celebrates its 20th anniversary this year, multiple Philippe DuFour watches were up for sale in the auction market this year, and there are more young watchmakers expressing an interest in independence, and launching their brands. Independent watchmaking isn’t over, but I do believe it is changing.
I can see a future where independent watchmakers and big brands collaborate on pieces, and rather than being behind the scenes, big brands highlight their relationship with an independent watchmaker who develops a piece for them, akin to the Harry Winston Opus Project. This might provide the best of both worlds - the independent watchmaker gets the access - the resources, supply chain, and relationships of the big brand, while the brand gets the crazy talents of an independent watchmaker to create something unique with the brand. LVMH has been rumored as wanting to resurrect the Opus Project, and they might be one of the only retail groups capable of pulling it off.
7. The ‘Old Man Era’
Simplicity, elegance, and restraint are making a comeback. Timeless appeal is a term in the zeitgeist, we are in an era of timeless fashion, and that trend seems to be inspiring all things luxury. I find myself gravitating toward classic and elegant strap watches, often of the two or three hand variety, that exude sophistication without drawing undue attention.
Based on watches that have come to auction, and what I have been drawn to over the last year, my tastes are certainly adjusting to the new normal: smaller cases, vintage, dressier, simpler. Having gone on a run of independents that are a little further afield - URWERK, MB&F, and De Bethune, I think there is an interesting juxtaposition in dressier watches, vintage, and classic strap watches, whether two or three handers or complications.
A Charles Frodsham Double Impulse Chronometer, the F.P. Journe Holland and Holland, Philippe Dufour’s Duality, multiple Derek Pratt watches, and an Atelier Haute Complication Day/Night all caught my eye at auction in 2024. All these feel that bit simpler, being classic strap watches that just seem to feel like you could put any number of straps on them and be quite content with them on your wrist. To me, there is some elegance and simplicity in this. Having a louder watch is starting to feel borderline inappropriate in 2025, there might be something to be said for restraint and a more classic watch and approach.
8. Evolving Auction Market
The auction world is diversifying. Platforms like LoupeThis and continuous online sales from big names like Sotheby’s are making auctions more accessible. This could lead to a bifurcation: highly curated in-person auctions for rare and significant pieces, alongside ongoing online sales for broader liquidity.
Platforms like LoupeThis and Bezel, it is clear that auctions are no longer the provenance of just the big names and houses. Sotheby’s has been offering ongoing online auctions - while reserving more special and interesting pieces for their in-person sales. Might auction houses offer continuous online sales for consignments and then save their most special pieces, just enough lots to get through in an afternoon or evening, for sale at auction? For example, a special collection of independents, or a collection of watches owned and worn by Paul Newman could be a small thematic auction that could draw a lot of interest from around the world. Then, auction houses wouldn’t feel compelled to fill auctions with a lot of fluff, or common place watches (sorry Rolex Daytona fans, I am sick of tallying over 30 of them per auction, at a certain point, they lose their specialness).
In person auctions, then, would be reserved for truly special watches. Everything else could be sent to online auction with continuous additions, offering another outlet for liquidity within the marketplace. This could also serve to give collectors an alternative to selling their watches privately, selling them to a dealer (who still needs to make margin), or consigning them to auction, waiting for the auction, and then waiting to get paid.
Perhaps this offers a quick route to liquidity, with someone else handling the logistics, photography, etc. The commission structure and Buyer’s Premium for these auctions will have to change - online auctions don’t require the same production elements of a live auction: a printed catalog, a stage, space, a live broadcast - all that is required is research, photography, written word, and an internet connection. I wonder how the established auction houses will respond to this. Will 2025 be the year that these forays into continuously running inline auctions outside of the major houses fail?
Challenges
2025 might be the year of the headwind for brands. Those brands with very patient backers, or the agility to change their production quickly, will likely live to sell another day. What I am seeing from watch reports and what I think needs to change in 2025 are:
• Over-Saturation of Limited Editions: The endless proliferation of “limited editions” risks diluting their appeal of brands. Brands must focus on meaningful differentiation rather than volume. If a piece is truly limited, make it limited. Full stop.
• Pressure to Innovate: The overarching pressure for brands to show continued innovation rather than take an "evolution not revolution” approach is stronger than ever. Brands need to own their category and find their design principles and stick to them (think URWERK and satellite complications). Independents can do this in their design language and call upon elements of clock and pocketwatch design in their watchmaking. Big brands will need to experiment with materials and potentially work with independent watchmakers to develop new movements or push concepts within an existing lineup.
• FOMO Marketing: The watch industry remains plagued by the usage of “fear of missing out” marketing, telling their clients that they aren’t true collectors if they don’t own every piece. It’s simply not a reality for most watch enthusiasts, and frankly, there are many better ways to market their product. Brands should call on their history, tell brand stories, and look into their archives to recreate or relaunch campaigns that they have previously succeeded. Great stories abound in the industry, it’s up to the brands to share them.
Whatever comes in 2025, it is certain to be an interesting year for the watch industry. Frankly, Watches & Wonders is too far away for me to even be thinking about what might be coming from the brands. That said, the Rolex GMT-Master does turn 70 this year, so I will eagerly await whatever anniversary surprise Rolex has lined up for us. With global challenges and sales declines, I wonder if W&W might be a more restrained affair this year, if Geneva will be quieter, if fewer collectors will be in attendance. I guess all that remains to be seen, but I think for certain that there are smaller watches in our future as we enter the old man era of the watch industry.
In 2024 I wrote that collections would get smaller and more meaningful, and while I have found deeper meaning and connection to watches in a smaller collection that I actually wear and enjoy, I am also realizing that there is a maximalist movement and mindset occurring out there. Whether you agree, choose to wear a vintage watch, or choose big brands or independents, there is a lot to look forward to in a new year of watches, but don’t expect the brands to come out of winter hibernation until sometime around March.
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